When the Founding Fathers put the finishing touches on the Constitution in late September of 1787, they probably had no idea whether or not it would be formally adopted by the states.
There had been intense debate. Criticism. Dissent. And so the ratification of the Constitution was by no means guaranteed.
Delaware became the first state to ratify the document on December 7, 1787. Then Pennsylvania and New Jersey within the same month.
But Article VII stated that the Constitution would not be considered valid unless formally approved by at least nine states. And that milestone wasn’t reached until June 21, 1788 when the state of New Hampshire ratified the Constitution.
One could easily argue that it was that date— June 21, 1788— that “Project America” really began, i.e. America 1.0.
It’s hard to even imagine the amount of work that had to be done to build a country from nothing, to create a government from nothing. Everything from creating a new currency to establishing postal routes…
They had to create offices, figure out how to hold elections, and even design the ‘swearing in’ ceremonies and oaths of office.
It must have been a mind-boggling amount of work. And they had to do it all with virtually no resources.
The brand new country was in debt up to its eyeballs from the Revolutionary War. It had almost no revenue or economy. Infrastructure, even by pre-industrial standards, was nonexistent.
Yet at the same time, the new nation had enormous potential; the massive continent held vast resources, plus people willing to do the hard work to create lasting prosperity.
That version 1.0 of the United States changed over time— Civil War, Reconstruction, rapid industrialization, etc. But it wasn’t until the 1940s that ‘America 2.0’ took shape.
Word War II was still raging. But by early July 1944 it was clear that the Allies— led by the US— were going to vanquish the Nazis.
It was also that same month when representatives from around world held a formal gathering (which ironically also took place in New Hampshire) called the Bretton Woods Conference.
Bretton Woods was a big deal. Dozens of government officials from countries ranging from Australia, Bolivia, China, to Yugoslavia, literally got together in a room and signed a document formally anointing the United States as the world’s dominant superpower.
The Bretton Woods agreement was formally ratified and went into effect on December 27, 1945. And you could argue that this was the launch date of America 2.0: the biggest, most dominant military and economic superpower atop the new global order— entrusted with the global reserve currency, and armed with nuclear weapons.
America 2.0 went on to win the Cold War, invent much of the world’s most important technology, and become the global beacon of strength and prosperity.
But America 2.0 has been in decline for decades.
A quarter-century of war, unbelievable deficit spending, irresponsible bailouts, extreme government incompetence, etc. have led to a major decline of America’s prestige and status.
The national debt now exceeds $36 trillion. The interest bill alone on that debt is over $1.1 trillion per year and rising quickly, consuming 23 cents out of every single tax dollar collected.
Plus, major entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare are set to run out of money within the next seven years, and those will require trillions of dollars in bailouts.
Frankly, politicians from both parties have fiddled while this dumpster fire burns.
But as the clock struck high noon yesterday in Washington DC, countless millions of people breathed a collective sigh of relief as Trump 47 announced boldly and confidently, without the slightest hint of doubt, “From this moment on, America’s decline is over,” to be replaced with a new “Golden Age” for the United States.
He may be right. I hope he’s right.
And if he is, future historians may look back— just as we have the luxury today of looking back to 1788 and 1945— and say that January 20, 2025 marks the emergence of America 3.0: a re-imagined, back-to-business, stronger, freer, less divided, more prosperous version of the United States that most people don’t even remember at this point.
And there are similarities between now and 1788.
The task back then was enormous— seemingly impossible. The debt was sky-high, and there were almost no resources to tackle the challenges.
Today, the work that needs to be done also seems extremely difficult. They’ll have to dismantle an entrenched, toxic bureaucracy; killing entire departments and programs; make deep cuts to the budget; eliminate thousands upon thousands of regulations.
Along the way their efforts will be stymied by deranged legacy media, blocked by litigation (likely in California’s activist 9th Circuit Court), and impeded by members of Congress from both parties.
Some of those obstacles existed in the 1790s as well. But today’s America has the benefit of having the most advanced economy in the world… so even if they don’t get everything right (which they won’t), as long as they head in the right direction and move quickly, they can make some serious gains.
So, again, they might pull it off. Perhaps this is the emergence of a new golden age.
But any rational person ought to seriously ponder the question: what if they don’t pull it off? What if they aren’t able to overcome the special interests, bureaucracy, media, and activist courts?
Well, in that case the decline may very well continue.
And fundamentally the question is, what will you do in that scenario? It’s really worth thinking about.
In fact, there is no better time to think about this question than when you’re feeling optimistic.
You don’t want to wait for things to get really bad to think about a Plan B; at that point you’ll be emotional and anxious— bad elements which prevent rational decision making.
So I’d encourage you to invest some of today’s optimism into thinking about credible risks— and what sensible steps you could take to reduce or eliminate the consequences in case this isn’t America 3.0, and they are unable to reverse the decline.
This is Plan B thinking. It’s sensible and rational.
How would you deal with the inflation? What about Social Security going away? How would you mitigate higher taxes, or more intense social divisions?
And when you are looking at options, it makes sense to have a global view.
Consider places that could give you the highest and safest return on investment. Or places where you could have a less expensive, more pleasant retirement, where your money goes further, and there is affordable, high quality healthcare.
I’m as optimistic as anyone right now. However this is the whole point of a Plan B: you might not need it. But you and your family will be in a much better position for giving serious thought to some obvious risks.
